August 30, 2024
Catching up

    I haven’t written anything since May 30, largely because I haven’t been able to read or listen to anything about politics or even think about the subject since the Biden-Trump debate.  Biden’s debate performance and its aftermath were the triggers, directly and indirectly, of my emotional funk. He froze answering one question, which justified concerns about his mental sharpness, but his all-over performance wasn’t as bad as the critical reports would have it and didn’t, in my view, justify all the panic among his supporters.
    I have difficulty understanding or respecting Trump’s supporters among ordinary folk, but one thing must be said for them: when their man is in trouble they rally around.  Democrats head for the exits.
    Now that Biden has withdrawn and Harris has been nominated there is enthusiasm again.  It had better last, and not fade if she runs into trouble, because the result could be the re-election of Trump, which would be a disaster.
    Trump’s admiration for authoritarian leaders is well known. His statement In July to a Christian group seemed to suggest that he has similar ambitions:

Christians, get out and vote, just this time. You won't have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won't have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians.. . . I love you Christians. I'm a Christian. I love you, get out, you gotta get out and vote. In four years, you don't have to vote again, we'll have it fixed so good you're not going to have to vote.[28].

Meanwhile, The Heritage Foundation has issued its Project 2025 proposal, which also seems to lean toward an authoritarian presidency.[29]

    The Supreme Court’s decision in Trump v. United States only increased the risk.  As summarized in the syllabus, the Court held:

    Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority.  And he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts.  There is no immunity for unofficial acts.

Given the ambiguity of the official-unofficial distinction, this goes a long way toward removing any restraints.
    A number of Republicans have seen the danger and have endorsed Harris.  Former Representative Adam Kinzinger spoke at the Democratic Convention.  He summed up Trump thus: “Donald Trump is a weak man pretending to be strong. He is a small man pretending to be big. He’s a faithless man pretending to be righteous. He’s a perpetrator who can’t stop playing the victim. He puts on—listen—he puts on quite a show, but there is no real strength there.” [30]  
    Former Trump Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham told the Convention that Trump “has no empathy, no morals and no fidelity to the truth. . . .He used to tell me, ‘It doesn’t matter what you say, Stephanie. Say it enough, and people will believe you.’ ’” [31]
    An open letter signed by 238 former associates of George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney declared this:

    At home, another four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership, this time focused on advancing the dangerous goals of Project 2025, will hurt real, everyday people and weaken our sacred institutions.
    Abroad, democratic movements will be irreparably jeopardized as Trump and his acolyte JD Vance kowtow to dictators like Vladimir Putin while turning their backs on our allies.
    We can’t let that happen.[32]

    Also. Fox News reported: “A dozen Republican White House lawyers who served in the administrations of then-Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush are endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris in her race against GOP nominee former President Donald Trump.”  The lawyers wrote: “We endorse Kamala Harris and support her election as President because we believe that returning former President Trump to office would threaten American democracy and undermine the rule of law in our country," [33]
    Let’s hope that voters inclined to support Trump will take heed.
______________________________________________________

28. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-tells-christians-they-wont-have-vote-after- this-election-2024-07-27/
29. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/01/project-2025-key-proposals
30. https://time.com/7014257/adam-kinzinger-2024-dnc-speech-full-transcript/
31. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/20/stephanie-grisham-dnc-trump/
32. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/26/republicans-endorse-harris- bush-romney-mccain/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3ed776c%2F66cdf9aa13573876a761e8f7%2F5b65de00ade4e2779564ed94%2F11%2F54%2F66cdf9aa13573876a761e8f7
33. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-lawyers-who-advised-reagan-bush-endorse- harris-over-trump-2024-showdown

May 30, 2024
Democracy as problem and solution

Recently I reread The Daughter of Time; by mystery novelist Josephine Tey.  Her detective, Alan Grant, is hospitalized after being injured pursuing a suspect, and he passes time reading history books and contemplating a portrait of Richard III who, according to many histories, had his two nephews murdered.  Grant is something of an expert in reading chacter in faces, and is convinced that Richard was not a murderer. He procedes, with the aid of a young researcher, to expose flaws in the story.  This restatement of history in detctive story form, in addition to presenting a persuasive refutation of the account of Richard as murderer of children, offers descriptions of historical gullibility, stories that those present knew were false but which became acepted lore.  In the age of Trump, believing lies is a too-familiar pattern.

A friend of Grant offered this explanation of why people continue to accept obviously false stories:

It’s an odd thing, but when you tell someone the true facts of a mythical tale, they are indignant not with the teller but with you.  They don’t want to have their ideas upset.  It rouses some vague uneasiness in them, I think, and they resent it, So they reject it and refuse to think about it.    

Our country today is full of such people, those who cling to Trump’s fantasies. Why do they believe him?  Stuart Stevens, in his recent book, offered an explanation: “Voting for Trump had nothing to do with solving problems.  That was the thing called ‘governing,’ which involved ‘policy’, and that wasn’t why MAGA voters loved Trump.  They embraced Trump for how he made them feel.” [24]

What underlies that need for emotional reassurance?  Stevens refers to a “shared sense of victimhood that has defined the MAGA movement . . . .” [25]  Many people see their status declining and are receptive to manipulators who will find someone to blame, whether immigrants or ”socialists” or “the deep state.” or globalist conspiracies.

Those of us who are more or less liberal claim to want more democracy, or at least to defend what we have of it and, given the autocratic tendencies of Trump and company, that is natural.  However, the extreme gullibility of the MAGA crowd makes one wonder whether democracy can work. A line attributed to Winston Churchill, although it apparently is apocryphal, summed up the problem cynically “The best argument against Democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” [26]

Nevertheless, our problem, at least in part, isn’t too much democracy but too little. The electoral college gives small states undue influence. (Wyoming has one elector for 188,000 people, California one for 677,345), [27] as well as allowing the election of a candidate, such as Trump, who loses the popular vote   The Senate, too, is unrepresentative.  The situation is exacerbated by various programs of vote suppression.  

Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and in 2020 which, at least until this November, preserves my belief in democracy and my desire to expand it.

______________________
24. The Conspiracy to End America: Five Ways My Old Party Is Driving Our Democracy to Autocracy (2023), p.32
25.  Id, p. 26
26. https://winstonchurchill.org/publications/finest-hour/finest-hour-141/red- herrings-famous-quotes-churchill-never-said/
27. https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/how-much-voting-power-do-you-really- have-in-your-state#gid=ci02666ac9200024ec&pid=2-world-manhattan-nyc-new-york-sh

April 15, 2024
The Trump enigma

The support for Donald Trump always has been a mystery to me.  His grasp of issues never was firm and he seems to be going downhill, making repeated mistakes or odd statements.[14]  The explanations, or theories, are different for different groups. Much of his support by ordinary voters seems to be based on fear and resentment, reenforced and exaggerated. A  column by Jennifer Rubin described how that can be manipulated: “Ruth Ben-Ghiat, an expert on reactionary strongmen, explains, ‘To get people to embrace violence, fill them with existential dread- the fear that it’s the Leader or the abyss.’ “[15]

Recently I have seen several theories for the support by Republican politicians.  One is, in effecr, “He is our candidate, and we don’t want Biden.”  Even many of those Trump has attacked support him[16]  This is a familiar form of blind partisanship, remarkable only in being applied to someone so thouroughly unworthy.  Some just are afraid of him: they want to stay active in GOP politics and he controls the Party.  

Liz Cheney, in her recent book, describes several reasons or excuses for support by her fellow Republicans: fear that crossing Trump would lead to a primary challenge, even fear that crossing him would put them and their families in danger.  Early on, some didn’t actively oppose him because they thought he would fade away.[17]    

There is some movement away from Trump.  Explanations by those who oppose him also vary. Here is Mike Pence’s reasoning:

Donald Trump is pursuing and articulating an agenda that is at odds with the conservative agenda that we governed on during our four years. . . .  As I have watched his candidacy unfold, I’ve seen him walking away from our commitment to confronting the national debt. I’ve seen him starting to shy away from a commitment to the sanctity of human life. And this last week, his reversal on getting tough on China and supporting our administration’s efforts to force a sale of ByteDance’s TikTok,[18]  

As to the first issue, the record of their administration is nothing to boast about.[19]  However, Pence’s defection is significant, whatever the reason.

The notion that Trump was a conservative appeared in an extreme form in a column by by Mark Thiessen, a Washington Post columnist, who wrote recently: “Based on his record in office, Trump should be considered one of the greatest conservative presidents we’ve had.”  Thiessen would like to support Trump, but his reported attitude toward Ukraine, Russia and dictators is a problem:

After meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Friday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Trump assured him he ‘will not give a penny’ to help Ukraine defend itself from Russian aggression. If true, that’s not the Trump I want to vote for. . . .I can’t vote for a candidate who would abandon Ukraine to Vladimir Putin.[20]

Thiessen also referred to “Trump’s recent flip-flop on forcing the sale of TikTok in the United States.”

Although most Republican oficeholders remain in the MAGA camp, there have been notable defections.  When Trump was impeached over his January 6 behavior, 10  House Republicanns voted to impeach and 7 Republican Senators voted to convict, both record numbers for those of the same party as the accused.[21]

There has been some defection by members of Trump’s inner crcle in addition to  Pence:

Several of Trump’s former top advisers and allies have refused to endorse their former boss’s campaign, including . . . former attorney general William P. Barr and former White House chief of staff John Kelly.
    * * *     
    Former defense secretary Mark T. Esper told HBO host Bill Maher that “there’s no way” he’ll support Trump in November because he believes his former boss “is a threat to democracy.”[22]

 Some are considering the next step:

    Esper: “Every day that Trump does something crazy, the door to voting for Biden opens a little bit more, and that’s where I’m at,”
    ***
    Sarah Matthews, a former deputy White House press secretary, supported Nikki Haley in the Republican primaries. She told The Post, however, that if her choice is between Trump and Biden on Election Day, she’ll support Biden.
    ***
    Ty Cobb, who was once a Trump loyalist and as White House counsel defended the former president during the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election, has repeatedly said that the country cannot elect Trump again. . . . “If the time comes and a vote for Joe is required to stop Trump, then I’d grudgingly vote for Biden,” Cobb said.

Cassidy Hutchinson succinctly stated why that move should be taken: “everybody should vote for Joe Biden if they want our democracy to survive.”[23]
__________________

14.  https://greensboro.com/dana-milbank-donald-trump-is-very-confused/article_ 872646de-bba4-11ee-911a-6f4c6a1dddfc.html
15.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/22/trump-ground-shift-rhetoric/
16. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/14/kemp-sununu-mcconnell-thune- back-trump/
17. Oath. and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning, Little, Brown & Co.(2023). See pp. 59-60, 131, 190-91. As to threats, also see https://www.huffpost.com/entry/anthony-scaramucci-trump- death-threats_n_660676c4e4b0c13128d023d9
18. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/politics/pence-will-not-endorse-trump/index.html
19. ttps://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/25/trump-national-debt/
20. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/14/marc-thiessen-vote-trump- national-security/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_opinions&utm_campaign=wp_ opinions
21. https://www.npr.org/2021/01/14/956621191/these-are-the-10-republicans-who-voted- to-impeach-trump    and
https://www.npr.org/sections/trump-impeachment-trial-live-updates/2021/02/15/967878039/7- gop-senators-voted-to-convict-trump-only-1-faces-voters-next-year
22.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/02/trump-aides-wont-vote-for-him/? utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3d456b5%2F660c2988c2b6150e259e7579%2F5b65de00ade4e2779564ed94%2F17%2F53%2F660c2988c2b6150e259e7579
23. Ibid

March 13, 2024
Is Trump fading?  (episode four)

I have suggested several times[1] that Trump’s appeal to voters might be fading.  I may  have been too optimistic; he has won most of the primary contests and his opponents have dropped out.. However, his legal troubles, while they may establish him as a martyr to some, should be a net negative.

The stunning verdicts in the E. Jean Carroll cases, finding “sexual abuse” and defamation[2], (and awarding huge damages)[3] should give any supporter pause.  In addition he faces serious criminal charges.

Also, Trump’s apparent popularity may be in part illusory.  He had little positive influence on the 2022 midterm election and observers have pointed out that Trump’s vote totals in the early primaries were not impressive and that not all Republican voters are ready to support him.[4]

Trump has shown lapses that may raise concerns about his mental ability.  He attacked Nancy Pelosi for an imagined failure on January 6, but referred to her repeatedly as “Nikki Haley.” Often he seems confused, making mistakes.[5]   Niece Mary Trump pointed to this gaffe by Trump at a Fox News town hall: ’”Were going to take over Washington, D.C. We’re going to federalize. We’re going to have very powerful crime, and you’re going to be proud of it again,”[6]

Unfortunately. President Biden has shown lapses as well, and his seem to show declining mental acuity, whereas Trump’s are buried in shouted blather, so he can seem strong even while revealing confusion. The special counsel’s comment on Biden’s memory has made matters still worse.  Biden’s performance at the State of the Union address should help to dispel fears: he fumbled at times but gave a vigorous, combative speech.  On policy, he took the initiative on the border issue and proposed a project to get more aid to Gaza.  He should go farther and take a harder line with Israel on its attacks

Trump at times seems to be self-destructive. After winning the New Hampshire primary, instead of trying to maintain Party solidarity, he attacked Governor Haley.  Driving away potential Republican voters doesn’t seem bright, but Trump did that while showing a vindictive streak, referring to  “Birdbrain” Nikki Haley and threatening her supporters: “Anybody that makes a ‘Contribution’ to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don’t want them, and will not accept them.”[7]

Haley returned the favor, exposing Trump’s weakness while again potentially driving away Republican votes.  One of her ads said, of Trump, “He just can’t help himself, the ranting and raving. . . .  Chaos follows him, and he’s getting older.”  Trump is only “running to settle old scores” because “it’s about him, not you,” the voter.[8]  She referred to him as “unhinged.”[9]

Another Haley ad raised the issue of Trump’s deference to Putin.  “Every time he was in the same room with him, he got weak in the knees,” Haley told a Fox News town hall in South Carolina. “We can’t have a president that gets weak in the knees with Putin. We have to have a president that’s going to be strong with Putin in every sense of the word.”[10]

Trump has underscored the issue of weakness toward Russia by suggesting that he would encourage it to attack a NATO member. He recently recalled (or imagined) a conversation during his presidency.  Referring to financial contributions toward military preparedness by NATO members, he said:
    One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, “Well sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?” I said, “You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?” He said, “Yes, let’s say that happened.” “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”[11] .   

All of this may persuade enough voters that Trump is a risky bet.  As Jennifer
Rubin put it, past presidential candidates “did not have the extra hurdle to prove they were sane, law-abiding and pro-democracy. Trump does, and he reinforces those concerns whenever he opens his mouth.”[12]

In addition to Trump’s weaknesses, the GOP is in disarray, as demonstrated by the antics, divisions and general uselessness of the House Republicans; that may drag its presidential candidate down.  Goaded by Trump, who wants border troubles as a campaign issue, they have lost interest in border enforcement after claiming that action there was critical.  Those voters who backed Trump because he vowed to close the border should be offended by his maneuvering to keep it open so he can complain about it.  

 Trunp’s cruise to the nomination is not necessarily bad news; in the two previous campaigns he lost the popular vote. Despite all of Biden’s troubles, including too-critical news media, I think (hope?) that voters will see that they must back him. As Robert Reich put it,  "When Americans actually focus on the presidential election and the stark reality of choosing between Biden and Trump, I expect they will once again choose Biden.”[13]

______________

1.  See notes of 1/26/22, 11/26/22, 8/20/23
2.  https://www.npr.org/2023/05/09/1174975870/trump-carroll-verdict
3. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/26/nyregion/trump-defamation-trial-carroll- verdict.html
4.  https://www.alternet.org/trump-2024-campaign/?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium= email&utm_campaign=Feb.26.2024_1.59pm
and    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jeff-timmer-trump-weak_n_65dee6cde4b005b858323206
and
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/06/super-tuesday-nikki-haley-republican-campaign/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_opinions&utm_campaign=wp_opinions
5.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/23/new-hampshire-primary-2024- scene-trump-phillips-haley/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source= newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most
6. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-freudian-slip-powerful-crime_n_65d863a7e4b0e 4346d51f8b3
7. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-nikki-haley-donor-threat_n_65b2198ee4b 0166fc 770d5e2
8. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nikki-haley-new-ad-donald-trump-2024_n_65c1db10e 4b093b2e780cda7
9. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nikki-haley-calls-donald-trump-unhinged-and-more- diminished_n_65cd017ce4b0087d43c8bcec
10. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nikki-haley-donald-trump-putin_n_65d30b8de4b043f1 c0abc5a7 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nikki-haley-donald-trump-putin_n_65d30b8de4b043f1 c0abc5a7
11. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-russia-attack-nato-allies_n_65c7e443e4b 069b665dfb762
12. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/26/trump-overrated-2024-biden- newsletter
13. https://www.alternet.org/nikki-haley-trump-2667064331/?utm_source=Iterable&utm_ medium=email&utm_campaign=Jan.23.2024_1.57pm

December 31, 2023
A dangerous situation
    Republicans refuse to support gun-control laws, pretending with the confused and doctrinaire Supreme Court that the Second Amendment is a blanket license to be armed and arguing that letting everyone carry a gun somehow improves safety.  One evasive response to mass shootings is that the problem is mental health, not guns.  An example is the comment by newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).
    In an interview[46] a day after eighteen people were killed in a mass shooting in Maine, he said guns aren’t the problem: “At the end of the day, the problem is the human heart. It’s not guns. It’s not the weapons. At the end of the day, we have to protect the right of the citizens to protect themselves, and that’s the Second Amendment, and that’s why our party stands so strongly for that . . . This is not the time to be talking about legislation.“  That time never seems to come, even at the end of the day.
    Johnson said the House should focus on mental health legislation. “I believe we have to address the root problems of these things. And mental health, obviously, as in this case, is a big issue, and we have got to seriously address that as a society and as a government.”
    That, it seems to me, is an excuse for inaction rather than a practical solution to the problem of gun-related violence.  However, In one sense, Johnson is right: violent, antisocial behavior is so common that it is appropriate to say that there is a behavioral issue.  However, the problem is only in small part one of the mental health of some individuals; there is a widespread condition of alienation, tribalism and the rejection of authority and of standards of behavior.  The cause and the cure are not medical but political, not the need for mental health counseling but for a new and responsible public attitude.  The tendency of some on the right to fabricate issues, stir resentment, encourage divisiveness, claim that the government is the enemy, and that liberals want to destroy the American way of life encourages antisocial behavior.  Arming the angry and disaffected completes the destructive circle.

 _________________     
46.  https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/mike-johnson-gives-first-interview-after -being-elected-house-speaker-transcript;
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4279085-speaker-johnson-says-now-not-the-time-to-discuss-gun-control-problem-is-the-human-heart-not-guns/

October 16, 2023
Whither the Court

A rogue, irrational, anti-democratic Republican Party is bad enough; a politicized Supreme Court may be worse.  It remains to be seen whether the Court, now with six conservatives, will move drastically to the right, but there is reason to worry.  

Even before the advent of the supermajority, the Court already had made a number of bad decisions. They include  District of Columbia v. Heller and McDonald v. Chicago on gun control, Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission and McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission on political spending, Shelby County v. Holder on discriminatory redistricting, Rucho v. Common Cause on gerrymandering, and Bucklew v. Precythe on the death penalty.  Together they made the nation less safe, less democratic and less civilized.[40]

The Court’s record was not all bad.  It rejected efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn the 2020 election and denied his attempt to prevent the January 6 Committee from obtaining records from his tenure.  However, on the whole, it was moving to the right, a move which now may accelerate.

One of the devices employed to justify conservative decisions is originalism, the notion that the Constitution must be interpreted as it would have been at the time the provision in question was written, or adopted, or ratified.  This does not make sense; the Constitution, in addition to creating a structure, sets out a set of principles; There is a difference between principles and applications or interpretations.  The latter are artifacts of the time, but the former are guides for decision or action in different times and different contexts. Originalism pretends that the creators of the Constitution intended that we be trapped in their time.  In effect it denies the possibility of intellectual and moral progress and even of changed circumstances.

In addition originalism is an invalid theory of interpretation because of its history and because its underlying premise is flawed.  The underlying premise of originalism is that the original understanding of a passage can be found; however, “For the vast majority of constitutional issues that arise, there is not a clear original meaning. With so many people involved in drafting and ratifying any given provision, there cannot be.”[41]

Originalism has a dark history. It underlies the infamous Dred Scott decision. which held that

neither slaves nor free Black people could be citizens. . . .  Dred Scott relied on what later would be called “originalism”. . . .[Chief Justice] Taney picked through founding era documents, laws passed in the early republic, and views of the framers to claim they intended the United States to grant rights only to white people throughout the country.[42]

In the Court’s hands, originalism is a flexible instrument; the Justices are selective as to what precedent to cite.  Heller is an example. The opinion allegedly adopts this principle: "Constitutional rights are enshrined with the scope they were understood to have when the people adopted them . . . .” However, rather than finding the intent, the scope, of the Second Amendment in its text, the opinion dismisses part of it as a mere preface and instead finds the alleged original intent in an English statute of 1689.

Heller was extended and originalism employed in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, which limited gun-licensing laws by the practices allegedly common at the time the Second Amendment was adopted.

A recent development which does nor bode well is the frequent use of the shadow docket, orders issued without briefing or argument.  These began as procedural orders, but have become vehicles for substantive decisions.  

    . . . Since the mid-2010s, there has been a radical shift in how (and how often) the justices use the shadow docket — not just to manage their workload, but to change the law both on the ground and on the books.  From immigration to elections, from abortion to the death penalty, from religious liberty to the power of federal administrative agencies, the Supreme Court has, with increasing frequency, intervened preemptively, if not prematurely, in some of our country’s most fraught political disputes, through decisions that are unseen, unsigned, and almost always  unexplained.[43]

Thus far, the supermajority’s record has been mixed.  On the plus side, the Court upheld a decision that threw out Alabama’s maps for its seven congressional districts, which included only one with a majority of Black voters.[44]  It was a notable ruling for a court which has not been friendly to the Voting Rights Act.  The Court also stayed a lower court’s ruling which struck down a government regulation of ghost guns.[45]  On the negative side, in addition to Bruen, the Court went out of its way to overturn Roe. .

Hovering over the Court is the question of ethics, both in terms of questionable behavior and the absence of rules.

______________

40. My more extended comments on these decision are here: Heller July 6, 2008 and December 19, 2015;   McDonald July 14, 2010; Citizens United February 6, 2010; Shelby County July 1, 2013; McCutcheon May 13, 2014; Rucho October 8, 2019; Bucklew April 13, 2019.
41. Erwin Chemerinsky, Worse than Nothing: The Dangerous Fallacy of Originalism, Yale University Press (2022), p. 51.
42. Michael Waldman, The Supermajority: How the Supreme Court Divided America, Simon & Schuster (2023) p. 22
43. Stephen Vladeck, The Shadow Docket Basic Books (2023), pp. 12-13
44. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/06/08/supreme-court-alabama- redistricting-voting-rights/
45. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/supreme-court-temporarily-allows-ghost-gun- regulations_n_64d271a0e4b0677e5044cfc1

September 22, 2023
The house is crumbling
            Every kingdom divided against itself is laid waste, and no city or house divided                     against itself will stand. . .
            Matthew 12:25

Lincoln used the house-divided metaphor in describing the situation of the United States prior to the Civil War.  It applies as well today.  It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the division is so great today that our society, our culture, our democratic political system are in danger of collapse. There is no consensus on basic facts, let alone policies, and the Republican philosophy (stance, attitude) is one of  opposition based on fantasy.  The resort to fantasy is partly of necessity, as they have few legitimate complaints about the Biden administration, but that has not prevented the move to impeach him.  Having no positive program, they indulge in destructive posturing.  As Speaker McCarthy said of some of his colleagues, they “just want to burn the whole place down.”[37]

Much of the political Right is trapped in a self-imposed flight from reality. a sort of self-imposed insanity. Pretending that there is no climate change or that it has no role in current climate extremes or that the glut of guns is not a major factor in mass shootings is daffy enough.  Opposing Covid vaccines in the face of evidence that they save lives is not only ignorant; it is suicidal.[38]   What sort of political philosophy leads people to refuse life-saving medical aid?   

A weekly newsletter from Media Matters lists claims by media figures or politicians on the right which are so ludicrous that it seems impossible that they believe what they say. The newsletter includes, appropriately, the categories “This week in stupid”,  “This week in scary” and “Excuse Me?” listing comments especially inane.   A column in The Washington Post[39] set out many examples from Republicans in the House, some offered during a “hearing” which praised January 6 rioters.

The craziness reaches one of its peaks in talk of separation and even civil war. Much of this is prattle, but it feeds feelings of resentment and oppression, and there are too many people out there who will take such talk seriously.  Another peak is the tendency on the right toward authoritarianism, aided by vote suppression

The Donald, apparently proud of his mug shot, is using it as a fund-raising vehicle. He has posted it on the site mysteriously known as X.  The brief text includes “ELECTION INTERFERENCE,” no doubt intended as a claim that the indictment damages his re-election campaign.  Ironically, it also refers to the charges against him.  Apparently he thinks that the head-lowered, scowling pose portrays strength and determination, the image of a strongman, the leader of the new authoritarian state.  What it really shows is a petulant, defiant child saying “you can’t make me.”  

If enough voters see that, we may not elect him.  However, some of the crazies might take his defeat as the trigger for violent overthrow.  We have a long way to go to rebuild that house.   

________________
37 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/21/government-shutdown-latest- spending-vote-mccarthy-republicans
38 The same actually could be said of the first two as well.
39. Dana Milbank, “As Trump is arrested, Republicans honor the insurrectionists."

August 20, 2023
Is Trump fading? (episode three)

Although Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary field, that is as much due to the lack of serious competition as to his continued appeal.   Despite his attempts to paint the indictments as political revenge, I think that they will have some negative effect on his popularity.  His legal troubles make him even more prone to outbursts, some of which may drive people away.

The news media, for all of their supposed liberal  bias, have not been especially kind to Biden and have  not been optimistic about his chance of reelection.  However, recent polls shows him at least even with Trump, and it seems to me that the trend will be away from the Donald.  He hopes to use the indictments and trials to play the martyr, rallying outraged fans.  Many will so respond, but he may lose others who will finally realize that he is not going to change the world for them..

The rigged-election story is beginning to fade; numerous leading Republicans, including presidential candidates, acknowledge that Trump lost.[34]  A Newsmax host announced this month that “Newsmax has accepted the election results as legal and final.”[35]

The Special Counsel will attempt to show that Trump knew that he lost which, if successful, should further undermine his support as well as aiding the prosecution.  According to testimony to the January 6 Committee, Trump acknowledged to staff that he had lost.  He is quoted as saying, referring to Biden: “can you believe I lost to this effing guy?”[36] There may be more such evidence and the Georgia indictment creates even more peril, legally as well as politically.

I may be too optimistic in predicting a decline in Trump’s support, but it does seem that he is nearing the point at which his image will collapse and at least some of his popularity with it.  

________________________
34.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/08/gop-trump-2020-loss/?utm_campaign=wp_ politics_am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_politics
35.  https://www.mediamatters.org/eric-bolling/after-airing-interview-donald-trump-newsmax-host-clarifies- network-has-accepted
36. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/13/trump-admission-election-aides-january-6-panel

July 20, 2023
The Trump enigma

All of the accounts of the decline of the Republican Party and the rise of Trump, enlightening as they are, have left me still wondering how so many people could have supported Trump.  That many still do, even after his post-election behavior and indictment is still more puzzling.

Chris Christie recently offered this description: Trump is “a petulant child when someone disagrees with him.”[25]  His reference was to Trump’s tendency to vilify former aides and supporters, for example saying that his White House chief of staff John Kelly “pretended to be a ‘tough guy,’ but was actually weak and ineffective, born with a VERY small ‘brain’.”[26]  Trump also attacked Bill Barr as a “ ‘disgruntled former employee’ & lazy Attorney General who was weak & totally ineffective,” and a “Gutless Pig.”[27] Barr responded, in terms similar to Christie’s: “[Trump is] like a 9-year old, a defiant 9-year-old kid who’s always pushing the glass towards the edge of the table, defying his parents from stopping him from doing it.” Barr  added that “our country can’t be a therapy session for a troubled man like this.”[28]

Why do people follow someone like that?  There are the insurrectionists, who seem to see Trump as an autocratic leader, but they are (I hope) a small fraction of his followers.  There are many unhappy, resentful people who are uninformed politically and willing to believe that the system is rigged against them —  that no one is on their side[29] — who therefore will follow a demagogue, but the question remains: why would they see Trump as their champion?   According to one pollster, “the fighting back, I found, is what attracts [Trump] to Republican primary voters.”  Again, referring to the contest for the GOP nomination, Trump  has “the edge, because it looks like he’s this tough guy, and the other Republican candidates just don’t have what it takes.”[30]  

It is true that he strikes the pose of a brawler, one who will fight for all those unhappy people but does he really help them?  In no small part it’s simply that he has been willing to play to their fears and resentments, and has some skill in doing so.  The fact that he is, or at least once was, an outsider may appeal to their sense that government is the enemy.

A recent variation on the theme is that he is in legal trouble because he is protecting the people.  His campaign website proclaims: “They’re not after me, they’re after you … I’m just standing in their way!”[31]   In a recent speech he charged: “Every time the radical-left Democrats, Marxist [sic],  communists and fascists indict me, I consider it a great badge of courage. I’m being indicted for you, and I believe the you is  more than 200 million people that love our country.”[32]

One description, if not quite an explanation, is this: “Fervent enthusiasm for Trump has never been about logic, however often Trump and his allies try to backstop his assertions with hastily constructed rhetoric. Trumpism is an emotional movement and that fireproofs it against things like” Barr’s comment  that the documents indictment ‘came about because of reckless conduct of the president.’ ”[33]  It seems that some follow Trump, without in any way admiring him, simply because he has become the symbol of opposition to the liberal establishment they imagine is ruining the country.

The remaining question is why there are so many unhappy, resentful, suspicious, gullible people, so many potential Trump followers.  Explanations usually focus on race, on white fears of loss of status and control.  That is an element, but it doesn’t strike me as an full explanation.  Another reason almost certainly is fear and resentment of cultural change, a belief that society is falling apart. The “woke”nonsense is designed to play on those feelings.

Whatever the explanation, unrest among many ordinary Americans is a political fact, and Democrats must concentrate on persuading voters that they, and the government, are on the people’s side, working for their benefit, making their lives better, along with demonstrating that the Republicans, for all their pretense, are not.  

____________________
25. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/chris-christie-donald-trump-petulant-child-024_n_648f440be4b025 003ee4fa0f
26. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/4053954-trump-fires-back-at-kelly-after-scared-s-less- remarks/
27. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/06/12/trump-barr-analysis/
28. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/william-barr-trump-child-cbs-interview_n_648fcea3e4b027d92f94 5386
29. One writer refers to it as a sense of abandonment:                                                                                     https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/17/donald-trump-gop-voters-2024-race/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_opinions&utm_campaign=wp_opinions
30. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3978590-why-gop-voters-are-so-loyal-to-trump/
31. https://www.donaldjtrump.com/
32. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/06/26/trump-republicans-indictment-gop-base/? utm_campaign=wp_politics_am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_politics
33. See footnote 3.

June 11, 2023
How far we have strayed

    We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union,
    establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquillity, provide for the common
    defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty
    to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for
    the United States of America.        

What a quaint idea: domestic tranquility in a perfect union.  Instead we have division, agitation, resentment, suspicion and threats.  

A more apt description of our present state was set out in 1907 by Henry Adams: “Politics, as a practice, whatever its professions, has always been the systematic organization of hatreds.”[20]   Until recently, I would not have thought that to be a fair description, but now it fits, at least when applied to the Right.  The Left has contributed to  the polarization of our politics through controversial policies and attitudes.  Whatever their merit, the Right has used them in stirring up resentment of liberals, of elites (carefully selected), of government, of  “the system,”  descending into that systematic organization of hatreds.

A politics of hatred leads to insurrection and violence, as we discovered on January 6.   Leaders of the mob believed they were commencing a revolution, reflected in slogans like  “1776,”  or “Winter Palace,” the latter referring to the storming, in 1917,  of the seat of the provisional government of Russia by the Bolsheviks.[21]  

Political violence is encouraged by casual, irresponsible references to firearms, such as the assault-rifle pins worn by some Republicans or the proposal by Republican Representatives that the AR-15 be designated the national gun.[22]  

An irony of our present situation is that conservatives want control but have little in the way of a program, and that little largely is hidden, as it favors the wealthy.  Lacking a constructive agenda, they have substituted opposition, obstruction and inane “investigations” feeding fuel, however artificial, to the blaze of hatreds.  This is not a new development; as one recent author put it, referring to the Clinton years, “With a Democrat in the White House, congressional Republicans adopted a politics of destruction, concerned less with legislation than with investigation and obstruction.”[23]

Public knowledge and understanding of politics and government have declined, partly a result of the attacks on government, partly an educational failure.  This is a potentially fatal trend; a democracy requires informed citizens. It depends on voters operating with a common set of facts, but the  tribal attitude on the right, and the tendency to find conspiracies to explain events, have polluted the political atmosphere to the degree that a majority of Republicans believe, on no evidence, that Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election.   

We must somehow find our way back.
____________________

20.  Henry Adams; Oxford Dictionary of Thenmatic Quotations, p.296
21.  The January 6th Report, pp. 512, 511
22. https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2023/02/26/lauren-boebert-george-santos-co-sponsor-bill-to- make-ar-15-the-national-gun/?sh=448db8006432
23. Hemmer, Partisans, p. 8 (2022)
24.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/03/14/republicans-increasingly-realize-theres-no- evidence-of-election-fraud-but-most-still-think-2020-election-was-stolen-anyway-poll-finds/?sh=68fd965028ec

May 10, 2023
Steps toward and away from the brink

    In mid-April, I referred to several shooting incidents which seemed to represent the ultimate in our firearm insanity.  Almost immediately it became clear that it could, and did, get worse.     
    There were more mass shootings in public places.  They happen so often that any list of them is almost immediately out of date.  According to The Gun Violence Archive, there have been 208 this year.  This must stop. As an email from Gabby Giffords put it, “Americans should not have to live in fear of a mass shooting when they are going about their Saturdays, shopping, running errands, and living their lives.”
    Other incidents were, in a way, even more indicative of social breakdown because they were impulsive reactions to perceived  intrusions onto the shooter’s property, yet another extreme in firearm madness. Stand-your-ground statutes and similar laws, NRA propaganda, repeated claims that criminals are all about us, and a general tendency to divide into hostile camps all help to plant the notion that one must have a gun; in short: we live in a dangerous society.  That the glut of guns is a large factor in creating the danger doesn’t seem to penetrate, nor does the fact that many who own guns obviously are not competent to have them.
    We cannot continue down this path.
    Small steps from the brink have been taken. In Washington Governor Inslee has signed HB 1240, which generally prohibits “the manufacture, importation, distribution, selling, and offering for sale of assault weapons,” although it will not prohibit possession by those who already have such guns, and House Bill 1143 “requiring a permit to purchase firearms, firearms safety training, and a 10-day waiting period, prohibiting firearms transfers prior to completion of a background check, and updating and creating consistency in firearms transfer and background check procedures.”[16]
    In Michigan, the Governor signed bills that will “create universal background checks for all firearms and mandate safe storage requirements around children.”[17]
    In Colorado, two “new laws will raise the age to buy any firearm from 18 to 21 and install a three-day waiting period between the purchase and receipt of a gun. A third will strengthen the state’s red flag law . . . .”[18]
    This state-by-state movement is important, but we need legislation at the federal level.
Following the most recent mass shooting, in Allen, Texas, President Biden made the case:
    Too many families have empty chairs at their dinner tables. Republican Members of Congress cannot continue to meet this epidemic with a shrug. Tweeted thoughts and prayers are not enough.
    Once again I ask Congress to send me a bill banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. Enacting universal background checks. Requiring safe storage. Ending immunity for gun manufacturers. I will sign it immediately. We need nothing less to keep our streets safe.[19]

______________________________
16.  https://www.governor.wa.gov/office-governor/official-actions/bill-action
17.  https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/politics/governor-gretchen-whitmer-gun-violence-prevention- michigan/index.html
18. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/colorado-governor-signs-gun-control-bills-after-massacre_n_ 644bf673e4b03c1b88cd0d3c
19. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/07/
statem ent-from-president-joe-biden-on-the-shooting-in-allen-texas/

April 15, 2023
The brink of collapse

    There are clear signs that American society is in danger of a fall from which it will not recover.  One indicator is the continuing cost of our love affair with firearms.
    Another school shooting occurred on March 27 in Nashville.  There the attacker fired 152 rounds, killing three 9-year-old students and three adults.  The awfulness of that incident was enhanced by the fact that it is only one in an endless series.  Before we could absorb the horror of that event, another mass shooting occurred on April 10, this time in Louisville, where five people were killed at a bank where the shooter worked.   According the The Gun Violence Archive, there have been 155 mass shootings in the U.S. this year.[13]
      Perhaps the ultimate demonstration of the gun menace occurred in Newport News, Virginia on January 6, where  a six year old child brought a gun from his home to school and shot his teacher.
    In a rational world, such events would cause us to conclude that, since we cannot remain peaceful and safe with so many guns in private hands, we should start limiting that number and restricting their use and availability. However, the Republican response to these shootings has been, for the most part, indifference or active worsening,
    Taking another step toward the edge, Governor DeSantis of Florida signed a bill on April 3 which allows carrying a concealed gun without a permit.[14]  Again, this development is made worse by its not being original.  Florida becomes the twenty-sixth state to allow that.  In Kentucky. a bill to make that state a “Second Amendment sanctuary” has been enacted; it prohibits state and local law enforcement agencies from enforcing “any federal laws or regulations enacted on guns, ammunition and accessories since Jan. 1, 2021.”[15] 
    Right on cue, the NRA convention opened, with potential Republican presidential candidates in attendance.

     _____________

13.  https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/
14. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-concealed-carry-no-permit-ron-desantis/
15. https://www.wtvq.com/bill-to-make-ky-a-second-amendment-sanctuary-becomes- law/

April 2, 2023
Woke   

    The constant use of “woke” by the right as a way of describing the evils of liberalism is an indication of their lack of real ideas and of desperation.  However, it’s also a sad reminder of how debased our political discourse has become.
    Although “woke” is tossed around so casually as to become meaningless, it has been defined.  When I first came across it in 2018,[10] I found that The Urban Dictionary advised us that “Being Woke means being aware. . . Knowing what[‘]s going on in the community.”  More recently. Merriam Webster offered this definition:  “aware of and actively attentive to important societal facts and issues (especially issues of racial and social justice).” However, its current use has less to do with definition than with political warfare; it is used merely as an all-purpose insult and declaration of virtue.
    A thoughtful recent article by Solomon D. Stevens[11] noted that “woke” is used to refer to a baffling  range of perceived social or political sins. Because of that muddle, “[t]he word ‘woke’ has no clear meaning, but to those who use it to condemn others, that doesn’t matter because the word is just a way of announcing one’s membership in a kind of club or gang.  It is a culture war badge.”
    Stevens refers to George Orwell’s 1945 essay “Politics and the English Language.” 

    Orwell points out that when we use sloppy, imprecise language, our thinking becomes sloppy and imprecise. In that respect, he says, our words can be both a cause and an effect. Our language “becomes ugly and inaccurate because our thoughts are foolish, but the slovenliness of our language makes it easier for us to have foolish thoughts.” And that is the problem with using the word “woke.”

     Orwell noted that much writing in his day was characterized by “staleness of imagery” and “lack of precision.”  One falling into such habits may be “almost indifferent as to whether his words mean anything or not.”[12]  So with the use of “woke.”  As Stevens puts it, “It is “employed to vilify others; ‘they’ are not simply wrong, they are enemies of civilization. Those who are ‘woke’ are portrayed as a threat to everything decent and good.”   It is a variation on the old theme on the right that liberals are not real Americans.

________________________

10. See my note of October 6, 2018
11.  https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/we-could-use-george-orwells-help-today-with-the-war-on-woke/
12. “Politics and the English Language,” George Orwell: Essays, Everyman’s Library (2002), p.956

March 23, 2023
The January 6th Report

    I’ve just finished reading The January 6th Report, more formally titled Final Report of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol.
    Following forewords by Speaker Pelosi, Chairman Thompson and Vice Chairwoman Cheney, there is an Executive Summary.  It lists the findings made by the Committee based on its investigation, then provides a 90-page Overview of the Evidence Developed.  In the next section of the Executive Summary “the Committee makes . . .criminal referrals to the Department of Justice’s Special Counsel.” 
    The last section is a list of witnesses; of those for whom a party affiliation is noted, nearly all were Republicans.  In his foreword, Committee Chairman Thompson pointed out that the plan to overturn the election “faltered at several points because of the courage of officials (nearly all of them Republicans) who refused to go along with it.”  Those two facts are beacons of hope in an otherwise dark night for that Party.
    The material which follows the Summary, described as The Narrative, is a further review of evidence, divided into eight chapters.  Because the chapters are topical rather than chronological, it is difficult to keep track of the sequence of events.  There is a good deal of overlap and repetition and a lack of overall scheme.  However, both the Executive Summary and the Narrative add to the record in numerous ways.
    The Report is massively end noted —there are 762 endnotes to the Executive Summary —  which will provide material for scholars.

February 6, 2023
State of the GOP: origins

Commentary on the fallen state of the Republican Party is unanimous that the decline did not begin with Trump, that he merely amplified tendencies already present.  Accounts vary, though, as to when the slide began, or when a crucial change occurred.  Recent books and columns illustrate this.  David Corn, in American Psychosis,[6] sees a turning point in the hostility to Nelson Rockefeller by Goldwater supporters and John Birchers at the 1964 GOP convention. He refers to “two mobs,” the hecklers at that convention and the rioters on January 6, 2021.  “What happened on Capitol Hill was a continuation of the Republican Party’s decades-long relationship with extremism.”  Dana Milbank, in The Destuctionists,[7]  dates the change to 1994 and the influence of Newt Gingrich, who emphasized attacks on the opposition and moved politics toward tribalism.

In a New York Times column last month,[8] Charles Blow traced it to John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate in 2008: “Palin exposed a dangerous reality about the Republican base: that it was starving for disruption and spectacle, that it would cheer for anyone who annoyed liberals, that performance was far more important than competence.”  David Von Drehle, in a Washington Post column in December,[9] pointed to 1992: “Many Republicans remember it as the year Texas billionaire H. Ross Perot flew a suicide mission into George H.W. Bush’s reelection campaign. But the first fatal blow to Bush Sr. was dealt by hard-right pundit Patrick J. Buchanan. His angry populist campaign carried all the way to the convention, where he traded a grudging endorsement of Bush for influence over the opening-night program. Buchanan anchored an evening of hatreds and resentments that presaged the politics of today.”

Another sign of decay was the absence of a Republican Party platform in 2020. There might be several reasons for that.  They might have looked at the 2016 platform and concluded, as I did, that it was an extended statement of why the GOP should not be in charge of government. That’s not likely, but they might, in an unusual burst of understanding, have realized that a majority of voters would so decide.  Again, not likely; self-awareness has not been characteristic of the Party in recent years.   They might have decided that there was no point.  Party platforms often are ignored in practice and, with Trump as President, no statement of principle would have much significance.  They may simply have confessed that the only goal of the election was to hold power, not to govern, so why bother with a statement of principles when you have no intention of recognizing any?  In that sense, the absence of a platform could be regarded as a rare burst of candor.

Some of the specific claims made by Trump were echos.  Republicans had made claims of voting fraud during the 2000 and 2008 elections.  They long have exploited grudges, fears and imagined oppression of ordinary folk while serving business.  Gingrich referred to an America in trouble and to a catalogue of catastrophes; Trump spoke of American carnage.  

Most of the accounts note that elements of the present attitudes on the right have even older roots, including the hunt for communists by Joseph McCarthy and others; a recurring theme is the claim that liberals —you know, socialists (now “globalists”) — are not real Americans.  

It’s been a long slide.

___________
6. American Psychosis: A Historical Investigation of How the Republican Party Went Crazy (2022).
7. The Destructionists: The Twenty-Five Year Crack-Up of the Republican Party (2022)
8. “The Burn-It-All-Down Republican Caucus,” Jan. 4, 2023
9. “The GOP is stuck in a doom loop begun 30 years ago,” December 2, 2022

January 7, 2023
Decline, and the way back

It’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that we are a culture in decline.  There are elements of decline, such as the corruption of the language (look at the daily crosswords) which have no connection to politics, but important problems relate to policies, biases and behavior on the right.

A president attempts to retain power illegally, relying on lies about fraud, a mob attacks the Capitol and 147 Congressional Republicans vote to reject legitimate electoral results.  Politicians and others on the right play on fears and resentments, making them worse, encouraging tribalism.  The Republicans are so much in thrall to their right wing that it takes fifteen ballots and numerous concessions to elect a Speaker of the House.

The economy has rewarded business, not working people, as shown by charts published by the EPI.[1]   One reveals that, beginning in the early 1980s,  wages have lagged behind productivity.  Another shows that “fatter profit margins have played a historically outsized role in driving price inflation.”  A third reveals that  the federal minimum wage today is worth 27% less than in 2009, 40% less than in 1968.  (Not surprisingly, another is captioned: “Without government programs, millions more would be in poverty.”)   Republicans, serving business and only pretending to aid ordinary folks, will do nothing to change this pattern.

A serious contribution by the right to societal illness is its opposition to gun control.  There were more than six hundred mass shootings last year. A chart published in The New York Times illustrates an especially appalling development: “Gun violence recently surpassed car accidents as the leading cause of death for American children.”[2]  A measure of the flood of guns is the number detected by TSA at airports; it reached a new high in 2022.  As of December 16, TSA had intercepted 6,301 firearms — more than 88% were loaded — up from 5,972 the previous year.[3]   Another measure is the number of states, now 25, which allow carrying a gun without a license.[4]  The right’s love of guns turns its tendency toward separatism into a looming menace.  Republicans will not do anything to solve that problem; indeed, they are determined to make it worse  An article in The New York Times last May illustrated their orientation: “ more than 100 television ads from Republican candidates and supportive groups have used guns as talking points or visual motifs this year. . . .as candidates praise the Second Amendment, vow to block gun-control legislation or simply identify themselves as ‘pro-gun.’ ”  

These trends cannot be allowed to continue, and the GOP will not reverse them.  Democrats must regain control of Congress, but to do so, they must find a way to persuade voters that they are on their side, that they are not the privileged elites of right-wing propaganda, that government is not the enemy.

_____________

1. https://www.epi.org/blog/epis-top-charts-of-2022-epis-most-popular-charts-tell-the-story-of-how- pandemic-setbacks-in-income-inequality-were-mitigated-by-pandemic-relief/?mc_cid=d26a73574b&mc_eid=faa04e9f25
2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/magazine/gun-violence-children-data-statistics.html? campaign_id=52&emc=edit_ma_20221216&instance_id=80273&nl=the-new-york-times-magazine&regi_id=22748210&segment_id=120008&te=1&user_id=3c8ad60682fc8ebf910291b2246ab6c0
3. https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2022/12/16/tsa-breaks-record-number-firearms-security- checkpoints-announces-new
4. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/constitutional-carry-half-states_n_63a4beeee4b0d2fe765111df

December 29, 2022

    Christmas is a time to reflect on many things, including where we are as a society and what Christianity means to us, which are not unrelated.  Whie watching a Christmas Eve church service (streaming on my computer), it occurred to me how tragic it is that Christianity’s message of love and forgiveness is so often lost in the misuse of the faith for political ends, where it has become a force for division, aggression and domination. 

December 12, 2022
Parallel downward paths; one may be near the end.

The plunge into darkness by Donald Trump and the Republican Party dominate the political picture.  The Party has been unraveling for many years, but its attachment to Trump accelerated its decline through endorsement of his methods and lack of principles.  One effect was his encouraging the worst Republicans to be still worse. Now he is weakened politically and the Party must decide whether to abandon him, in the sense of opposing his renomination, but also whether to repudiate the positions and attitudes which came to dominate Republican politics during his presidency.  The former is looking increasingly likely, the latter much less so.       

The move toward rejection of Trump the candidate accelerated after his meeting with Kanye West and Nick Fuentes, due to their anti-Semitic views and West’s praise of Hitler.  Mitt Romney’s reaction to that meeting  was brutally frank: “I think it has been clear that there’s no bottom to the degree to which President Trump will degrade himself and the nation.”[66]    Some of the critics drew a line between Trump’s behavior and the Party; Senator Cassidy put it this way: “President Trump hosting racist antisemites for dinner encourages other racist antisemites. These attitudes are immoral and should not be entertained. This is not the Republican Party.”[67]   RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel did not criticize Trump, but declared: “There is no place for Kanye, Fuentes, or their views inside the Republican Party.”[68]   They may be right that the Party, as an institution, does not tolerate such bias, but holding the GOP up as a model of political virtue is a stretch.

Dismissing Trump is complicated by Republican attacks on those attempting to call him to account, including the January 6 Committee, the DOJ and state prosecutors.  It is an exercise in opposing Trump with one hand while defending him with the other.

Full repudiation became somewhat more likely when Trump moved to the next-to-last position in his bizarre attempt to regain the presidency: proposing that we abandon the Constitution.  (The last position would be armed insurrection, already hinted at by many of his supporters and rehearsed on January 6).  Here is Trump’s proposal, referring, of course, to the imaginary election fraud in 2020: “A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.”[69]   That radically irresponsible proposal drew immediate criticism, so Trump attempted to back out, babbling in his usual fashion:

 The Fake News is actually trying to convince the American People that I said I wanted to “terminate” the Constitution. This is simply more DISINFORMATION & LIES, just like RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA, and all of their other HOAXES & SCAMS. What I said was that when there is ‘MASSIVE & WIDESPREAD FRAUD & DECEPTION,’ as has been irrefutably proven in the 2020 Presidential Election, steps must be immediately taken to RIGHT THE WRONG. Only FOOLS would disagree with that and accept STOLEN ELECTIONS. MAGA![70]

Of course he said more than that, but never mind.  Again an attempt was made to separate Trump from the GOP; Senator Romney: “Well, the Republican Party is the Constitution party. So when he calls to suspend the Constitution, he goes from being MAGA to being RINO.”[71]   At some point, leading Republicans must take as hard a look at their Party as at Trump.

__________________

66.  https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mitt-romney-donald-trump-degrade-kanye-west-nick-fuentes_n_ 638608ebe4b006c42d429d55
67. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bill-cassidy-trump-nick-fuentes-kanye-west_n_6384f725e4b082d8e6d 3a20a
68. https://sports.yahoo.com/gop-chairwoman-condemns-antisemitism-twitter-011033799.html
69. https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/03/politics/trump-constitution-truth-social/index.html
70. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/109462304115605769

November 26, 2022
Is Trump fading?  (Episode 2)

He has announced that he is running again.  The threshold question is why.  He has lost two popular elections, likely would lose again, and can’t count on the peculiarities of the electoral college to rescue him a second time.  Even he must know that the stolen-election gambit won’t work.  His fragile ego would be damaged by another loss, so why risk it?  Two reasons occur to me.

The first is the hope that re-election, or even candidacy, would insulate him from his legal exposure, including potential  indictments.  The former might well have that result, but the latter is likely to be, at best, only partially effective.  However, Trump could use his candidacy to claim that the suits and prosecutions are politically motivated, that evil liberals are out to get him, that fairness requires dismissal..

The second reason is that, even though he might lose again, from now until election day, or at least until he loses the nomination, he can hold rallies, be the center of attention and bask in the adulation of his fans.  That seems to be his greatest need.   (If he fails to be nominated, he might run as an independent or third-party candidate for the same reasons).

What are his chances of being nominated?   There are signs that his support is declining.  An early November poll which asked “Do you consider yourself to be more of a supporter of Donald Trump or more of a supporter of the Republican Party?” found 62% choosing the Party, 30% going for Trump.  In August 2021, the corresponding numbers were 50% Party, 40% Trump; in January 2021, it was 46% each; in January 2019, 51% Trump, 38% Party.[53]  

The much-hyped red wave failed to materialize in this month’s elections, and many are blaming Trump, whose favored candidates did not fare well.  Some of his prominent allies have abandoned him or waffled.  Rep. Mo Brooks declared recently that it would be a mistake for Republicans to  nominate  Trump again, adding “Donald Trump has proven himself to be dishonest, disloyal, incompetent, crude and a lot of other things that alienate so many independents and Republicans.”[54]   Much of Trump’s support was transactional, so it is no surprise that his weakness has led to second thoughts.  

He has lost the support of the Murdoch media empire,[55]  and some donors have backed away.   Losing the support of evangelicals would be especially damaging, and there is some indication that may be happening.

We may be rid of him eventually, but that’s not enough; the Party needs to change.

_____________________

53.  https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc- poll/
54. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mo-brooks-dishonest-trump_n_6371c58fe4b0290136437c7f
55. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/15/murdoch-press-turns-on-donald-trump-in-favour- of-defuture-ron-desantis

October 31, 2022
Boredom, then a bombshell

The final broadcast session of the January 6 Committee on October 13 was not a hearing —  there were no live witnesses —  but, as specified by Chairman Thompson, they held “a formal committee business meeting so that, in addition to presenting evidence, we can potentially hold a committee vote on further investigative action based upon that evidence.”.  It was designed as a summary of the information presented during the hearings as a basis for the surprise (to me, at least) vote at the close to subpoena Donald Trump to testify.

Commentary about the meeting has been generally favorable, but I thought that it was poorly organized and repetitious.  There were some new facts, but mostly the Committee offered a recapitulation of evidence presented at prior hearings.  Presenting it in segments by several Committee members created overlap and confusion, some of the references were obscure, and it all went on for so long that it took some determination to stay until the end.

The most significant new information indicated that Trump knew and, on a few occasions, admitted or let slip that he had lost.
    Alyssa Farah,  White House Director of Strategic Communications: “I remember maybe a week after the election was called, I popped into the Oval just to like give the President the headlines and see how he was doing. And he was looking at the TV and he said, can you believe I lost to this effing guy?
    Three comments by Cassidy Hutchinson:
    On December 11, 2020, in a meeting with Trump and Meadows: “the President said I think — so he had said something to the effect of, I don't want people to know we lost, Mark. This is embarrassing. Figure it out. We need to figure it out. I don't want people to know that we lost.”
    On the 18th of December, 2020, “I said [to Mark Meadows] look, does the President really think he lost? And he said, you know, a lot of times he'll tell me that he lost, but he wants to keep fighting it. He thinks that there might be enough to overturn the election, but you know, he — he pretty much has acknowledged that he — that he's lost.”    
    In a meeting after Trump’s January 2, 2021 call to Secretary Raffensperger: “I said, Mark, you can't possibly think we're going to pull this off. Like, that call was crazy. And he looks at me and just started shaking his head. He was like, no, Cass, you know, he knows it's over. He knows he lost, but we're going to keep trying. There's some good options out there still. We're going to keep trying.”

The Committee has issued its subpoena.[53]  It was accompanied by a letter, signed by the Committee Chair and Vice Chair, which is an odd combination of deference and accusation.  The former is in the polite salutation: “Dear President Trump.”    The rest of the letter reads like an indictment.     Here is a sampling:

As demonstrated in our hearings, we have assembled overwhelming evidence, including from dozens of your former appointees and staff, that you personally orchestrated and oversaw a multi-part effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election and to obstruct the peaceful transition of power. This multi-part effort included, but was not limited to:

    • Purposely and maliciously disseminating false allegations of fraud related to the 2020 presidential election in order to aid your effort to overturn the election and for purposes of soliciting contributions;
    • Attempting to corrupt the Department of Justice, including by soliciting and enlisting Department officials to make false statements and aid your effort to overturn the presidential election;
    • Without any evidentiary basis, illegally pressuring state officials and legislators to change the results of the election in their states:
    • Orchestrating and overseeing an effort to obtain and transmit false electoral certificates to Congress and the National Archives;
    • Despite knowing specifically that it was illegal, corruptly pressuring your own Vice President to unilaterally refuse to count electoral votes during Congress's joint session on January 6th; . .

After summing up with a reference to “your central role in the multi-part effort to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election and to interfere with the peaceful transfer of power,” the letter ends with what must be taken as another courtesy, as it certainly was not a realistic hope: “The Select Committee looks forward to your cooperation with this subpoena.”      

The subpoena calls for Trump’s appearance on November 14, and demands production by November 4 of a wide range of documents pertaining to the election, the events of January 6, contacts with Committee witnesses and “fundraising efforts based on claims of election fraud or a stolen election.”

Leaving the oddity of the letter aside, issuing a subpoena to Trump seems to me to have been a questionable move.  It is unlikely that he will appear or produce documents, and already he has taken the opportunity, in a letter to Chairman Thompson, to denounce the Committee and play the martyr.  Here is the muddled opening of  his letter:  
        THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2020 WAS RIGGED AND STOLEN!

The same group of Radical Left Democrats who utilized their Majority position in Congress to create the fiction of Russia, Russia, Russia, Impeachment Hoax #1, Impeachment Hoax #2, the $48 Million Mueller Report (which ended in No Collusion!), Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine, the atrocious and illegal Spying on my Campaign, and so much more, are the people who created this Committee of highly partisan political Hacks and Thugs whose sole function is to destroy the lives of many hard-working American Patriots, whose records in life have been unblemished until this point of attempted ruination. . . . [54]

If Trump were to appear, he would make the same sort of speech; giving him a platform might undermine what the Committee has accomplished.  On the other hand, Trump might make boasts that amount to confessions; he isn’t know for subtlety or caution.  On balance, though, I think that the Committee should not have issued the subpoena.  The case against Trump is clear enough.

_______________________
53.  https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/21/politics/read-january-6-committee-subpoena-trump
54. https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23132276/830-am-final-january-6th-committee-letter14446.pdf