January
26, 2022
Is
Trump fading? What would it mean?
In an interview last year, Mickey
Edwards, former national chairman of the American Conservative Union — echoing
the observation by Andrew Bacevich in American Conservatism about the
state of politics on the right — declared: “The Republican party really no
longer stands for any kind of principles, conservative or otherwise.”
Instead, Edwards said, the Party “seems
now to be completely following the lead of one man wherever he goes, which is
the definition of a cult. . . . And that includes denying truth, denying fact,
denying reality.” Republicans speaking
at CPAC “are living in an alternate reality in which facts don’t matter, the
Constitution doesn’t matter.” Instead,
“all that matters is, ‘Trump is for this, we’re for this’.”[1] That’s the usual, and perhaps correct, or at
least partly correct, interpretation of the Trump phenomenon. It would describe the “Front Row Joes,”
people who were such avid Trump fans that they would travel long distances to attend
Trump rallies, and camp out in front of the arenas just to be in the front row.[2]
However, there is another possibility:
the base has followed Trump not because he has a coherent program or because he
is in any real sense a leader, but because he points in the direction they are
already inclined to go, and re-enforces their inclination to take that
path; in effect he opens that path for
them. If he were to veer off course or
fall behind, he might be abandoned.
This is not to say that Trump’s followers
have a clear vision of where they want to go, or even that they all want to go
in the same direction. They share an attitude rather than a program: a fear of
social change, a mood of grievance over imagined disrespect or oppression, over
loss of control or status. This
manifests itself in resentment toward liberals, “elites” and the government,
and enhances any tendency to indulge in conspiracy theories.
There are some signs that Trump’s hold on
them may be weakening. He is in an
awkward position as to vaccination. He
downplayed the risks of Covid infection, which resonated with the suspicious,
anti-government mood of his fans, and with the hyper-libertarian attitude of
many of them. However, he wants credit
for developing the vaccines.
Accordingly, he remarked at a recent rally that “we did something that
was historic, we saved tens of millions of lives worldwide” and, in answer to a
question by Bill O’Reilly, stated that he had received a booster shot. Some in
the audience booed.[3] That is a
hint that the biases and fantasies of the base might be stronger than fealty to
Trump.
That possibility was reflected in a rant
by Alex Jones, reacting to an interview of Trump by Candace Owens. In the interview, Trump again paraded his
triumph in producing the vaccines: “I came up with a vaccine, with three
vaccines. All are very, very good. Came up with three of them in less than nine
months. It was supposed to take five to 12 years." Ms. Owens tried to criticize the vaccines,
but Trump cut her off. Perhaps he was
merely supporting his boast about producing the vaccines, but what followed is
one of the most sensible statements he ever has uttered: “Oh, no, the vaccines
worked, but some people aren't taking them. The ones who get very sick and go
to the hospital are the ones who don't take their vaccine. But it’s still their choice, and if you take
the vaccine, you're protected. Look, the results of the vaccine are very good,
and if you do get it [Covid], it's a very minor form. People aren't dying when
they take the vaccine."[4]
His only nod toward the
anti-vaxxers was in the reference to choice.
Sensible comments are not welcome on the
right. Jones exploded in “an emergency
Christmas Day warning to President Trump.“
Referring to the interview, he charged: “You are either completely
ignorant about the so-called vaccine gene therapy that you helped ram through
with Operation Warp Speed or you are one of the most evil men who has ever
lived to push this toxic poison on the public and to attack your constituents
who they [sic] simply try to save their lives and the lives of
others." He added, in more mangled
syntax, “We're about to lay out the basic, incontrovertible facts that you told
Candace Owens just a few days ago is nothing but a raft of dirty lies."[5] It will be interesting to see what he
produces, if anything.
Candace Owens has no more regard for good
advice than Jones. She dismissed
Trump’s comments by
saying that he is too old to know how to find the truth. “He comes from a
generation—I’ve seen other people that are older have the exact same
perspective, like, they came from a time before TV, before internet, before
being able to conduct their independent research.” (We old folks can’t navigate
our way to dangerous nonsense so, sadly, rely on science). She thinks “many
people are horrified by his remarks.”[6]
Right-wing pundit Ann Coulter has
repudiated Trump for sounder reasons.
In a tweet, referring to Governor DeSantis, she said: “He was a loyal
booster when Trump ran in 2016, but then he learned our president was a liar
and con man whose grift was permanent.”
In an interview, she summed up her view: “Trump is done”.[7]
Although Trump was not a leader in the
strict sense, he was both a focal point and a spokesman for the angry and
disaffected, His loss of the bully pulpit and his ban from Twitter has made him
less visible, less influential and less able to keep the troops in line., even
leaving aside his apostasy on vaccines.
A poll of Republican voters often had shown them more committed to Trump
than to the Party. At the end of
October, 2020, the percentages were Trump 54%, Party 38%. In January 2021 that dropped to Trump 46%,
Party 46%, and now stands at Trump 36%, Party 56%.[8] No doubt that reflects in part that he no longer
is President but, as the trend of the poll is toward a greater gap, it also may
reflect a degree of desertion.
Seemingly inconsistent is another recent poll: “In a hypothetical race
of eight potential candidates, Trump leads 57%. DeSantis grabbed 12% in the
survey and former Vice President Mike Pence placed at 11%. None of the other
candidates reached double digits.” That
might show lasting influence or it might reveal the weakness of Republican
leadership and, hence, shortage of alternatives.[9]
There has been mild pushback within the
Party. Trump had planned a contentious,
self-justifying press conference for the anniversary of the January 6 invasion
of the Capitol but canceled, apparently in part due to negative comment by
Republican Senators.[10]
The mysterious “Q” of Qanon fame,
reportedly has gone silent. Without Trump and Q to speak for them, many on the
distracted right are attacking each other, either out of loss of focus or as
rivals for leadership. Some figures on
the right, including Trump, have serious legal problems.[11] Trump is
feuding with DeSantis, who has become the champion of Covid
skeptics.
Many Republicans reject Trump’s big lie
about the election, A few days ago
Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota, interviewed on ABC, said that, after
investigating claims of election fraud, he found “there were none of the
irregularities which would have risen to the point where they would have
changed the vote outcome in a single state. . . .We simply did not win the
election, as Republicans, for the presidency.”
Trump responded in typical fashion: “Is he crazy or just stupid? The
numbers are conclusive, and the fraudulent and irregular votes are massive. . .
. I will never endorse this jerk again.”
Perhaps Trump expected that his outburst would cause a terrified
retraction; not so. Rounds responded:. "I'm disappointed, but not
surprised by the former president's reaction," but "the facts remain
the same. The former president lost the 2020 election." Mitt Romney backed him up: “Mike Rounds
speaks truth knowing that our Republic depends upon it. Republicans like Govs
Hutchinson, Baker & Hogan; Sens McConnell, Thune & Johnson; Bush &
Cheney; plus 60+ courts and even the right-leaning Wall Street Journal
editorial page agree: Joe Biden won the election.”[12]
To be sure, there are those still in
Trump’s thrall. Senator Lindsey Graham
suggested that he might not support Mitch McConnell for leader if he doesn’t
bow to Trump: “If you want to be a Republican leader in the House or the
Senate, you have to have a working relationship with President Donald Trump, .
. . the most consequential Republican since Ronald Reagan.” That was an interesting choice of words:
Trump is “consequential.” One possible
interpretation: “he may be a fool, but we daren’t ignore him.” Whatever Graham’s meaning, McConnell has to
fall in line. “I’m not going to vote
for anybody that can’t have a working relationship with President Trump, to be
a team, to come up with an America First agenda . . . .”[13]
Also, the Republican establishment is
about to implement a Trump loyalty test.
Trump dislikes the Commission on Presidential Debates. Therefore the Republican National Committee
is considering amending its rules “to demand any contenders for the
presidential nomination pledge to skip general-election debates” sponsored by
the commission, even though, as an article reporting the change put it, the
move “could potentially kill the next presidential nominee’s chance to reach
voters.”.[14]
Despite such desperate tactics, the Trump
magic may yet fade. His tendency to
attack anyone who doesn’t fawn over him may drive other Republican leaders
away. The faithful might dismiss
indictments as mere politics, might overlook business failures and otherwise
continue to be blind to his phoniness.
However, the basic fact about Donald Trump is that he always is
interested in one thing only: himself.
At some point, that may register and, if it does, some of his followers
may be open to more sensible arguments.
The end of his influence could merely cause a transfer of loyalty to
another demagogue, or it might be the beginning of a return to political
sanity.
>____________________
1. Report of
interview by Erin Burnett of CNN:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ex-cpac-chair-slams-trump-conference_n_6039f9cac5b617a7e40dcf05
2. See Michael
C. Bender, Frankly, We Did Win This Election (2021).
3.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/politics/donald-trump-booster-shot-boos/index.html
4.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danidiplacido/2021/12/26/alex-jones-slams-donald-trump-for-telling-
the-truth-about-the-covid-19-vaccine/?sh=19dd998d2e3b
5.
https://www.alternet.org/2021/12/alex-jones/?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=9529
6. https://www.thedailybeast.com/candace-owens-claims-trump-defended-covid-vaccine-because-hes-too-
old-to-understand-the-internet
7 https://www.alternet.org/2022/01/ann-coulter-tells-the-ny-times-that-trump-is-done-and-they-should-
stop-obsessing-over-him/?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=9663
8. https://www.alternet.org/2022/01/a-buried-poll-result-reveals-a-trend-in-the-gop-that-looks-bad-for-
trump/?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=9695 and
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21182470-220027-survey-1-20-22-release
9. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-2024-election-poll_n_61ef9903e4b00e5113d68db7
10.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/04/gop-trump-jan-6-speech-526487
11.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/01/03/trump-qanon-online-money-war-jan6/?
utm_campaign=wp_politics_am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_politics&carta-
url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F35a9459%2F61d2edb59d2fda3f8b7db8e8
%2F5b65de00ade4e2779564ed94%2F16%2F48%2F61d2edb59d2fda3f8b7db8e8
12. https://www.alternet.org/2022/01/republicans-big-lie/?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_
campaign=9638
13. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/13/sen-lindsey-graham-says-he-wont-support-
mitch-mcconnell-senate-gop-leader-unless-he-has-working-relationship-with-trump/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F35bfa1e%2F61e05f289d2fda14d7eee417%2F5b65de00ade4e2779564ed94%2F39%2F72%2F61e05f289d2fda14d7eee417
14. https://time.com/6139417/republican-national-committee-presidential-debates-2024/