July 19, 2016

Presidential polls that I looked at yesterday, taken in July, range from a dead heat to a lead for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump of seven points, when the choice is between only those two. When the of the Libertarian and Green Parties are added, the margins change, but not consistently; in one, Trump gains, in one there is no change (the dead heat), and in three Clinton gains. Another muddling factor may be the "silent" Trump vote, potential votes by people who are shy about admitting their support, including those who don’t like him but like Mrs. Clinton less.

An example of that attitude was set forth on the Washington Post page on June 28. The writer, identified as a retired financial adviser, had this to say: "I’m part of the new silent majority: those who don’t like Donald Trump but might vote for him anyway." He’s hardly part of a majority as he defines it, but he and others might make a majority for Trump. Why, if he doesn’t like Trump would he vote for him? "For many of us, Trump has only one redeeming quality: He isn’t Hillary Clinton. He doesn’t want to turn the United States into a politically correct, free-milk-and-cookies, European-style social democracy where every kid (and adult, too) gets a trophy just for showing up." There are legitimate reasons to have reservations about Mrs. Clinton, but a fantasy of corrupting socialism and stifling political correctness isn’t among them.

The writer claims to be under no illusions about Trump, "a classic bully and a world-class demagogue in his personal, professional and political lives." Trump "will continue to demonize his perceived enemies and take the low road at every opportunity." So why then, he asks, appropriately, "would rational, affluent, informed citizens consider voting for The Donald?"

Trump, he tells us, is "the only one who appears to want to preserve the American way of life as we know it." What is the threat? (We might ask as well: what does he think is the American way of life?) Here is his attempt at an answer: "For the new silent majority, the alternative to Trump is bleak: a wealthy, entitled progressive with a national security scandal in her hip pocket." Mrs. Clinton’s sense of entitlement is annoying but, although her performance as Secretary of State leaves much to be desired, a national security scandal is a stretch. "In our view, the thought of four to eight more years of a progressive agenda polluting the American Dream is even more dangerous to the survival of this country than Trump is." It would be interesting to know where he found that agenda, and what it contains, but it hardly matters. He’s with Glenn Beck in thinking that "progressive" is a pejorative, so much so that even Trump is acceptable.

"So come Nov. 8, you’ll find many of us sheepishly sneaking into voting booths across the United States. Even after warily pulling the curtain closed behind us, we’ll still be looking over our shoulders to make sure the deed is shielded from view. Then, fighting a gag reflex, we’ll pull the lever." Perhaps that describes the supposed silent mass, but the coyness is a bit out of place for the author after declaring his intentions in a major publication.

He and his rational, informed fellows ought to consult a New Yorker article by Jane Mayer,[44] which describes the reactions to Trump’s candidacy of the author of Trump’s supposed memoir, The Art of the Deal. That author, Tony Schwartz, who spent a year following Trump around in an attempt to learn who he was, considers The Donald to be "pathologically impulsive and self-centered." He says that if he were to write a book today about Trump, he would title it "The Sociopath."

Interviewing Trump for the book posed a problem: "He has no attention span" or, put another way, "it’s impossible to keep him focused on any topic, other than his own self-aggrandizement, for more than a few minutes." Confirming the impression one gets watching Trump, Schwartz "believes that Trump’s short attention span has left him with ‘a stunning level of superficial knowledge and plain ignorance’." As President, his impulsiveness and inability to concentrate would be dangerous.

Our retired financial advisor describes his reluctantly-for-Trump group as affluent and fiscally conservative. ("We’re not uneducated, uninformed, unemployed or low-income zealots.") Their possible votes for Trump presumably come at least in part from the notion that Trump shares their viewpoint because he is a self-made, successful businessman. Reading Jane Mayer’s article might disabuse them of that notion. In any case, the American Dream, even that of the smugly superior, would be at risk with Trump in the White House.