August 30, 2024
Catching up

    I haven’t written anything since May 30, largely because I haven’t been able to read or listen to anything about politics or even think about the subject since the Biden-Trump debate.  Biden’s debate performance and its aftermath were the triggers, directly and indirectly, of my emotional funk. He froze answering one question, which justified concerns about his mental sharpness, but his all-over performance wasn’t as bad as the critical reports would have it and didn’t, in my view, justify all the panic among his supporters.
    I have difficulty understanding or respecting Trump’s supporters among ordinary folk, but one thing must be said for them: when their man is in trouble they rally around.  Democrats head for the exits.
    Now that Biden has withdrawn and Harris has been nominated there is enthusiasm again.  It had better last, and not fade if she runs into trouble, because the result could be the re-election of Trump, which would be a disaster.
    Trump’s admiration for authoritarian leaders is well known. His statement In July to a Christian group seemed to suggest that he has similar ambitions:

Christians, get out and vote, just this time. You won't have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won't have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians.. . . I love you Christians. I'm a Christian. I love you, get out, you gotta get out and vote. In four years, you don't have to vote again, we'll have it fixed so good you're not going to have to vote.[28].

Meanwhile, The Heritage Foundation has issued its Project 2025 proposal, which also seems to lean toward an authoritarian presidency.[29]

    The Supreme Court’s decision in Trump v. United States only increased the risk.  As summarized in the syllabus, the Court held:

    Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority.  And he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts.  There is no immunity for unofficial acts.

Given the ambiguity of the official-unofficial distinction, this goes a long way toward removing any restraints.
    A number of Republicans have seen the danger and have endorsed Harris.  Former Representative Adam Kinzinger spoke at the Democratic Convention.  He summed up Trump thus: “Donald Trump is a weak man pretending to be strong. He is a small man pretending to be big. He’s a faithless man pretending to be righteous. He’s a perpetrator who can’t stop playing the victim. He puts on—listen—he puts on quite a show, but there is no real strength there.” [30]  
    Former Trump Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham told the Convention that Trump “has no empathy, no morals and no fidelity to the truth. . . .He used to tell me, ‘It doesn’t matter what you say, Stephanie. Say it enough, and people will believe you.’ ’” [31]
    An open letter signed by 238 former associates of George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney declared this:

    At home, another four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership, this time focused on advancing the dangerous goals of Project 2025, will hurt real, everyday people and weaken our sacred institutions.
    Abroad, democratic movements will be irreparably jeopardized as Trump and his acolyte JD Vance kowtow to dictators like Vladimir Putin while turning their backs on our allies.
    We can’t let that happen.[32]

    Also. Fox News reported: “A dozen Republican White House lawyers who served in the administrations of then-Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush are endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris in her race against GOP nominee former President Donald Trump.”  The lawyers wrote: “We endorse Kamala Harris and support her election as President because we believe that returning former President Trump to office would threaten American democracy and undermine the rule of law in our country," [33]
    Let’s hope that voters inclined to support Trump will take heed.
______________________________________________________

28. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-tells-christians-they-wont-have-vote-after- this-election-2024-07-27/
29. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/01/project-2025-key-proposals
30. https://time.com/7014257/adam-kinzinger-2024-dnc-speech-full-transcript/
31. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/20/stephanie-grisham-dnc-trump/
32. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/26/republicans-endorse-harris- bush-romney-mccain/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3ed776c%2F66cdf9aa13573876a761e8f7%2F5b65de00ade4e2779564ed94%2F11%2F54%2F66cdf9aa13573876a761e8f7
33. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-lawyers-who-advised-reagan-bush-endorse- harris-over-trump-2024-showdown

May 30, 2024
Democracy as problem and solution

Recently I reread The Daughter of Time; by mystery novelist Josephine Tey.  Her detective, Alan Grant, is hospitalized after being injured pursuing a suspect, and he passes time reading history books and contemplating a portrait of Richard III who, according to many histories, had his two nephews murdered.  Grant is something of an expert in reading chacter in faces, and is convinced that Richard was not a murderer. He procedes, with the aid of a young researcher, to expose flaws in the story.  This restatement of history in detctive story form, in addition to presenting a persuasive refutation of the account of Richard as murderer of children, offers descriptions of historical gullibility, stories that those present knew were false but which became acepted lore.  In the age of Trump, believing lies is a too-familiar pattern.

A friend of Grant offered this explanation of why people continue to accept obviously false stories:

It’s an odd thing, but when you tell someone the true facts of a mythical tale, they are indignant not with the teller but with you.  They don’t want to have their ideas upset.  It rouses some vague uneasiness in them, I think, and they resent it, So they reject it and refuse to think about it.    

Our country today is full of such people, those who cling to Trump’s fantasies. Why do they believe him?  Stuart Stevens, in his recent book, offered an explanation: “Voting for Trump had nothing to do with solving problems.  That was the thing called ‘governing,’ which involved ‘policy’, and that wasn’t why MAGA voters loved Trump.  They embraced Trump for how he made them feel.” [24]

What underlies that need for emotional reassurance?  Stevens refers to a “shared sense of victimhood that has defined the MAGA movement . . . .” [25]  Many people see their status declining and are receptive to manipulators who will find someone to blame, whether immigrants or ”socialists” or “the deep state.” or globalist conspiracies.

Those of us who are more or less liberal claim to want more democracy, or at least to defend what we have of it and, given the autocratic tendencies of Trump and company, that is natural.  However, the extreme gullibility of the MAGA crowd makes one wonder whether democracy can work. A line attributed to Winston Churchill, although it apparently is apocryphal, summed up the problem cynically “The best argument against Democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” [26]

Nevertheless, our problem, at least in part, isn’t too much democracy but too little. The electoral college gives small states undue influence. (Wyoming has one elector for 188,000 people, California one for 677,345), [27] as well as allowing the election of a candidate, such as Trump, who loses the popular vote   The Senate, too, is unrepresentative.  The situation is exacerbated by various programs of vote suppression.  

Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and in 2020 which, at least until this November, preserves my belief in democracy and my desire to expand it.

______________________
24. The Conspiracy to End America: Five Ways My Old Party Is Driving Our Democracy to Autocracy (2023), p.32
25.  Id, p. 26
26. https://winstonchurchill.org/publications/finest-hour/finest-hour-141/red- herrings-famous-quotes-churchill-never-said/
27. https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/how-much-voting-power-do-you-really- have-in-your-state#gid=ci02666ac9200024ec&pid=2-world-manhattan-nyc-new-york-sh

April 15, 2024
The Trump enigma

The support for Donald Trump always has been a mystery to me.  His grasp of issues never was firm and he seems to be going downhill, making repeated mistakes or odd statements.[14]  The explanations, or theories, are different for different groups. Much of his support by ordinary voters seems to be based on fear and resentment, reenforced and exaggerated. A  column by Jennifer Rubin described how that can be manipulated: “Ruth Ben-Ghiat, an expert on reactionary strongmen, explains, ‘To get people to embrace violence, fill them with existential dread- the fear that it’s the Leader or the abyss.’ “[15]

Recently I have seen several theories for the support by Republican politicians.  One is, in effecr, “He is our candidate, and we don’t want Biden.”  Even many of those Trump has attacked support him[16]  This is a familiar form of blind partisanship, remarkable only in being applied to someone so thouroughly unworthy.  Some just are afraid of him: they want to stay active in GOP politics and he controls the Party.  

Liz Cheney, in her recent book, describes several reasons or excuses for support by her fellow Republicans: fear that crossing Trump would lead to a primary challenge, even fear that crossing him would put them and their families in danger.  Early on, some didn’t actively oppose him because they thought he would fade away.[17]    

There is some movement away from Trump.  Explanations by those who oppose him also vary. Here is Mike Pence’s reasoning:

Donald Trump is pursuing and articulating an agenda that is at odds with the conservative agenda that we governed on during our four years. . . .  As I have watched his candidacy unfold, I’ve seen him walking away from our commitment to confronting the national debt. I’ve seen him starting to shy away from a commitment to the sanctity of human life. And this last week, his reversal on getting tough on China and supporting our administration’s efforts to force a sale of ByteDance’s TikTok,[18]  

As to the first issue, the record of their administration is nothing to boast about.[19]  However, Pence’s defection is significant, whatever the reason.

The notion that Trump was a conservative appeared in an extreme form in a column by by Mark Thiessen, a Washington Post columnist, who wrote recently: “Based on his record in office, Trump should be considered one of the greatest conservative presidents we’ve had.”  Thiessen would like to support Trump, but his reported attitude toward Ukraine, Russia and dictators is a problem:

After meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Friday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Trump assured him he ‘will not give a penny’ to help Ukraine defend itself from Russian aggression. If true, that’s not the Trump I want to vote for. . . .I can’t vote for a candidate who would abandon Ukraine to Vladimir Putin.[20]

Thiessen also referred to “Trump’s recent flip-flop on forcing the sale of TikTok in the United States.”

Although most Republican oficeholders remain in the MAGA camp, there have been notable defections.  When Trump was impeached over his January 6 behavior, 10  House Republicanns voted to impeach and 7 Republican Senators voted to convict, both record numbers for those of the same party as the accused.[21]

There has been some defection by members of Trump’s inner crcle in addition to  Pence:

Several of Trump’s former top advisers and allies have refused to endorse their former boss’s campaign, including . . . former attorney general William P. Barr and former White House chief of staff John Kelly.
    * * *     
    Former defense secretary Mark T. Esper told HBO host Bill Maher that “there’s no way” he’ll support Trump in November because he believes his former boss “is a threat to democracy.”[22]

 Some are considering the next step:

    Esper: “Every day that Trump does something crazy, the door to voting for Biden opens a little bit more, and that’s where I’m at,”
    ***
    Sarah Matthews, a former deputy White House press secretary, supported Nikki Haley in the Republican primaries. She told The Post, however, that if her choice is between Trump and Biden on Election Day, she’ll support Biden.
    ***
    Ty Cobb, who was once a Trump loyalist and as White House counsel defended the former president during the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election, has repeatedly said that the country cannot elect Trump again. . . . “If the time comes and a vote for Joe is required to stop Trump, then I’d grudgingly vote for Biden,” Cobb said.

Cassidy Hutchinson succinctly stated why that move should be taken: “everybody should vote for Joe Biden if they want our democracy to survive.”[23]
__________________

14.  https://greensboro.com/dana-milbank-donald-trump-is-very-confused/article_ 872646de-bba4-11ee-911a-6f4c6a1dddfc.html
15.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/22/trump-ground-shift-rhetoric/
16. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/14/kemp-sununu-mcconnell-thune- back-trump/
17. Oath. and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning, Little, Brown & Co.(2023). See pp. 59-60, 131, 190-91. As to threats, also see https://www.huffpost.com/entry/anthony-scaramucci-trump- death-threats_n_660676c4e4b0c13128d023d9
18. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/politics/pence-will-not-endorse-trump/index.html
19. ttps://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/25/trump-national-debt/
20. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/14/marc-thiessen-vote-trump- national-security/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_opinions&utm_campaign=wp_ opinions
21. https://www.npr.org/2021/01/14/956621191/these-are-the-10-republicans-who-voted- to-impeach-trump    and
https://www.npr.org/sections/trump-impeachment-trial-live-updates/2021/02/15/967878039/7- gop-senators-voted-to-convict-trump-only-1-faces-voters-next-year
22.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/02/trump-aides-wont-vote-for-him/? utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3d456b5%2F660c2988c2b6150e259e7579%2F5b65de00ade4e2779564ed94%2F17%2F53%2F660c2988c2b6150e259e7579
23. Ibid

March 13, 2024
Is Trump fading?  (episode four)

I have suggested several times[1] that Trump’s appeal to voters might be fading.  I may  have been too optimistic; he has won most of the primary contests and his opponents have dropped out.. However, his legal troubles, while they may establish him as a martyr to some, should be a net negative.

The stunning verdicts in the E. Jean Carroll cases, finding “sexual abuse” and defamation[2], (and awarding huge damages)[3] should give any supporter pause.  In addition he faces serious criminal charges.

Also, Trump’s apparent popularity may be in part illusory.  He had little positive influence on the 2022 midterm election and observers have pointed out that Trump’s vote totals in the early primaries were not impressive and that not all Republican voters are ready to support him.[4]

Trump has shown lapses that may raise concerns about his mental ability.  He attacked Nancy Pelosi for an imagined failure on January 6, but referred to her repeatedly as “Nikki Haley.” Often he seems confused, making mistakes.[5]   Niece Mary Trump pointed to this gaffe by Trump at a Fox News town hall: ’”Were going to take over Washington, D.C. We’re going to federalize. We’re going to have very powerful crime, and you’re going to be proud of it again,”[6]

Unfortunately. President Biden has shown lapses as well, and his seem to show declining mental acuity, whereas Trump’s are buried in shouted blather, so he can seem strong even while revealing confusion. The special counsel’s comment on Biden’s memory has made matters still worse.  Biden’s performance at the State of the Union address should help to dispel fears: he fumbled at times but gave a vigorous, combative speech.  On policy, he took the initiative on the border issue and proposed a project to get more aid to Gaza.  He should go farther and take a harder line with Israel on its attacks

Trump at times seems to be self-destructive. After winning the New Hampshire primary, instead of trying to maintain Party solidarity, he attacked Governor Haley.  Driving away potential Republican voters doesn’t seem bright, but Trump did that while showing a vindictive streak, referring to  “Birdbrain” Nikki Haley and threatening her supporters: “Anybody that makes a ‘Contribution’ to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don’t want them, and will not accept them.”[7]

Haley returned the favor, exposing Trump’s weakness while again potentially driving away Republican votes.  One of her ads said, of Trump, “He just can’t help himself, the ranting and raving. . . .  Chaos follows him, and he’s getting older.”  Trump is only “running to settle old scores” because “it’s about him, not you,” the voter.[8]  She referred to him as “unhinged.”[9]

Another Haley ad raised the issue of Trump’s deference to Putin.  “Every time he was in the same room with him, he got weak in the knees,” Haley told a Fox News town hall in South Carolina. “We can’t have a president that gets weak in the knees with Putin. We have to have a president that’s going to be strong with Putin in every sense of the word.”[10]

Trump has underscored the issue of weakness toward Russia by suggesting that he would encourage it to attack a NATO member. He recently recalled (or imagined) a conversation during his presidency.  Referring to financial contributions toward military preparedness by NATO members, he said:
    One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, “Well sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?” I said, “You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?” He said, “Yes, let’s say that happened.” “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”[11] .   

All of this may persuade enough voters that Trump is a risky bet.  As Jennifer
Rubin put it, past presidential candidates “did not have the extra hurdle to prove they were sane, law-abiding and pro-democracy. Trump does, and he reinforces those concerns whenever he opens his mouth.”[12]

In addition to Trump’s weaknesses, the GOP is in disarray, as demonstrated by the antics, divisions and general uselessness of the House Republicans; that may drag its presidential candidate down.  Goaded by Trump, who wants border troubles as a campaign issue, they have lost interest in border enforcement after claiming that action there was critical.  Those voters who backed Trump because he vowed to close the border should be offended by his maneuvering to keep it open so he can complain about it.  

 Trunp’s cruise to the nomination is not necessarily bad news; in the two previous campaigns he lost the popular vote. Despite all of Biden’s troubles, including too-critical news media, I think (hope?) that voters will see that they must back him. As Robert Reich put it,  "When Americans actually focus on the presidential election and the stark reality of choosing between Biden and Trump, I expect they will once again choose Biden.”[13]

______________

1.  See notes of 1/26/22, 11/26/22, 8/20/23
2.  https://www.npr.org/2023/05/09/1174975870/trump-carroll-verdict
3. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/26/nyregion/trump-defamation-trial-carroll- verdict.html
4.  https://www.alternet.org/trump-2024-campaign/?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium= email&utm_campaign=Feb.26.2024_1.59pm
and    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jeff-timmer-trump-weak_n_65dee6cde4b005b858323206
and
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/06/super-tuesday-nikki-haley-republican-campaign/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_opinions&utm_campaign=wp_opinions
5.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/23/new-hampshire-primary-2024- scene-trump-phillips-haley/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source= newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most
6. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-freudian-slip-powerful-crime_n_65d863a7e4b0e 4346d51f8b3
7. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-nikki-haley-donor-threat_n_65b2198ee4b 0166fc 770d5e2
8. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nikki-haley-new-ad-donald-trump-2024_n_65c1db10e 4b093b2e780cda7
9. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nikki-haley-calls-donald-trump-unhinged-and-more- diminished_n_65cd017ce4b0087d43c8bcec
10. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nikki-haley-donald-trump-putin_n_65d30b8de4b043f1 c0abc5a7 https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nikki-haley-donald-trump-putin_n_65d30b8de4b043f1 c0abc5a7
11. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-russia-attack-nato-allies_n_65c7e443e4b 069b665dfb762
12. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/26/trump-overrated-2024-biden- newsletter
13. https://www.alternet.org/nikki-haley-trump-2667064331/?utm_source=Iterable&utm_ medium=email&utm_campaign=Jan.23.2024_1.57pm

December 31, 2023
A dangerous situation
    Republicans refuse to support gun-control laws, pretending with the confused and doctrinaire Supreme Court that the Second Amendment is a blanket license to be armed and arguing that letting everyone carry a gun somehow improves safety.  One evasive response to mass shootings is that the problem is mental health, not guns.  An example is the comment by newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).
    In an interview[46] a day after eighteen people were killed in a mass shooting in Maine, he said guns aren’t the problem: “At the end of the day, the problem is the human heart. It’s not guns. It’s not the weapons. At the end of the day, we have to protect the right of the citizens to protect themselves, and that’s the Second Amendment, and that’s why our party stands so strongly for that . . . This is not the time to be talking about legislation.“  That time never seems to come, even at the end of the day.
    Johnson said the House should focus on mental health legislation. “I believe we have to address the root problems of these things. And mental health, obviously, as in this case, is a big issue, and we have got to seriously address that as a society and as a government.”
    That, it seems to me, is an excuse for inaction rather than a practical solution to the problem of gun-related violence.  However, In one sense, Johnson is right: violent, antisocial behavior is so common that it is appropriate to say that there is a behavioral issue.  However, the problem is only in small part one of the mental health of some individuals; there is a widespread condition of alienation, tribalism and the rejection of authority and of standards of behavior.  The cause and the cure are not medical but political, not the need for mental health counseling but for a new and responsible public attitude.  The tendency of some on the right to fabricate issues, stir resentment, encourage divisiveness, claim that the government is the enemy, and that liberals want to destroy the American way of life encourages antisocial behavior.  Arming the angry and disaffected completes the destructive circle.

 _________________     
46.  https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/mike-johnson-gives-first-interview-after -being-elected-house-speaker-transcript;
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4279085-speaker-johnson-says-now-not-the-time-to-discuss-gun-control-problem-is-the-human-heart-not-guns/